Latest UK General Election Odds: Next Prime Minister & Key Betting Markets

Next Conservative Leader Odds

With Sunak seemingly on the way out, the Conservative leadership race is a significant betting market. Kemi Badenoch at 11/4 and Penny Mordaunt at 9/2 are top contenders, with odds reflecting internal party dynamics and recent performances.

Next Labour Leader Odds

Betting on the next Labour leader, though less active currently, still garners interest. To be honest, it is still too early to discuss potential successors to Keir Starmer, even so Andy Burnham priced at 7/2 is favourite at this time.

Voter Turnout Percentage

Voter turnout predictions are crucial for understanding election dynamics. Historical trends, current public engagement, and key issues will be analysed to predict turnout rates and their impact on the election results. It usually and over/under bet. Currently the under is 64.49% (4/11), the over is 64.50% (2/1). Bookies clearly see fewer people at the polls.

Party Total Seats

Odds on the total number of seats each party will win provide a detailed view of expected election outcomes. This is an interesting bet, as it is difficult to predict exactly the outcome. Labour are currently priced at 2/1 for 400-449 seats, which would be a significant majority. They are only at 20/1 for 500 or more seats, which would be incredible.

Conservative Seats Lost

If you are into schadenfreude, then this would be a great market. Predicting how many seats the Tories will lose. They are priced at 4/9 to lose 201 or more seats. If you think they will do better, 101-150 seats lost at 7/1 is a decent price.

Individual Constituency Betting

Betting on individual constituencies offers a granular view of the election. Key battlegrounds will be offered by the bookies, especially if big names are contesting. Could Rishi Sunak lose Richmond (Yorks)? It is historically the safest Conservative seat, but it would be hilarious if he did!

Key Dates

Important dates leading up to the election, such as debate schedules and candidate announcements, are crucial for staying informed. This timeline will help bettors and political enthusiasts keep track of significant events.

• Election Date – 4 July 2024
• Deadline for Nomination – 7 June 2024
• Deadline to Register to Vote – 17 June 2024
• Manifesto Releases – Major parties release their manifestos outlining their policies. These are typically published a few weeks before the election
• Debate Schedules: – These debates usually occur in the weeks leading up to the election

*We will update this list when the full schedule of debates etc, has been released.

Projections

Based on the latest data from Electoral Calculus, Labour is expected to secure a significant majority with a predicted 352 seats. The Conservatives are forecasted to win between 92 to 214 seats, indicating a substantial loss (Electoral Calculus) . These projections use opinion polls and advanced modelling to estimate outcomes.

Current Predictions:

• Labour Majority: 98% probability
• Labour Minority: 2% probability
• Largest Party: Labour with a 100% probability

The model accounts for alliances, historical voting patterns, and recent poll data, providing a comprehensive view of potential election results. These projections are critical for bettors looking to gauge the most likely outcomes.